The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index fell by 0.1% to 99.0 during May, triggering a recession signal after a downwardly revised 1.4% drop in April, which was the largest decline in the index since the spring of 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The index fell because of consumer pessimism, weak new orders for manufactured goods, an uptick in jobless benefits claims, and a drop in building permit applications. The Conference Board stated that it “does not anticipate recession,” but it does “expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026.”
