The Department of Energy (DOE) is seeking public comments on its draft 2026 National Transmission Needs Study, which examines electric transmission capacity constraints and congestion across the nation’s power grid. Section 216(a) of the Federal Power Act, as amended by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), requires DOE to conduct the study every three years. The study will inform DOE’s decisions regarding National Interest Electric Transmission Corridor (NIETC) designations and the use of other federal transmission authorities and funding programs.
The draft Study highlights the significant growth in electricity demand expected over the coming decades. DOE notes that the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects electricity demand will increase 16% by 2034 and 31% by 2040, while the Electric Power Research Institute projects demand will grow between 30% and 46% from 2020 to 2035. According to DOE, this growth is being driven by expanding data centers, artificial intelligence (AI), cryptocurrency mining, domestic manufacturing, hydrogen production, electrification, and other large industrial and commercial loads. However, the report states that data centers have recently become a primary driver of increasing electricity demand.
The draft Study identifies Virginia and Texas as having the nation’s highest estimated current data center electricity demand and projects they will continue to experience some of the largest increases through 2030, along with Arizona and Oregon. For the PJM Interconnection, DOE notes that significant transmission bottlenecks are already limiting the delivery of electricity to Dominion Energy’s rapidly growing data center load in Virginia. The report explains that increasing interconnection requests and transmission systems operating near capacity have contributed to growing congestion and delayed interconnection timelines. At the same time, DOE cautions that long-term projections remain uncertain because the pace of AI and data center development continues to evolve rapidly.
Comments on the draft 2026 National Transmission Needs Study are due September 8, 2026, and should be submitted by email to NeedsStudy.Comments@hq.doe.gov.